Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010: 24-32

Main Methods of Intelligence Analysis and Ways of its EvaluatingMilitary art

Mgr. Miroslav Kalous

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

Keywords: Intelligence services, analysis, methods, information

Published: September 15, 2010  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Kalous, M. (2010). Main Methods of Intelligence Analysis and Ways of its Evaluating. Czech Military Review, 91(3), 24-32
Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. MARRIN, S. Intelligence Analysis Theory Explaining and Predicting Analytic Responsibilities. Intelligence and National Security. 2007, vol. 22, is. 6, s. 821-846.
    2. BETTS, R. Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable. World Politics. 1978, vol. 31, is. 1, s. 61-89.
    3. Rob Johnson, c. d. O'CONNOR, T. (2009) Analytical Methods in Intelligence Analysis [online]. 29. 02. 2009 [cit. 2009-12-05]. MegaLinks in Criminal Justice. Dostupný z www.
    4. ŘÍCHOVÁ, B. Metodologie politické vědy. In CABADA, L., et al. Úvod do studia politické vědy. Praha: Eurolex Bohemia, 2002.
    5. FOLKER, D.R. Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods. Occasional Paper. No. 7. Washington D.C.: Joint Military Intelligence College Press, 2000, s. 5. Dostupný z www.
    6. MOORE, T. D. Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. Occasional Paper. No. 14. Washington D.C.: National Defense Intelligence College Press, 2007. Dostupný z www.
    7. BLACKBURN, S. (ed.). The Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy. Heslo "induction". Oxford Reference Online, 2008.
    8. MOORE, T. D. Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. S. 4.
    9. WIRTH, U. What Is Abductive Reasoning? [online]. Cit. 2009-12-05. Franfurkt University. Dostupný z www.
    10. MOORE, T. D. Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. S. 4.
    11. JONES, D. M. Fourteen Powerful Techniques for Problem Solving. New York: Three Rivers Press, 1998, s. 87.
    12. KRIZAN, L. Intelligence Essentials for Everyone. Washington, D.C.: Joint Military Intelligence College, 1999, s. 33-34.
    13. KRIZAN, L. Intelligence Essentials for Everyone. Washington, D.C.: Joint Military Intelligence College, 1999, s. 34.
    14. SAWKA, A. K. Linchpin Analysis. Competitive Intelligence Review. 1997, vol. 8, is. 3, str. 85-86.
    15. JONES, D. M. Fourteen Powerful Techniques for Problem Solving. S. 3-58.
    16. KRIZAN, L. Intelligence Essentials for Everyone. S. 34.
    17. Analytic Thinking and Presentation for Intelligence Producers. CIA. Office of Training and Education, nedatováno, s. 57-60.
    18. MOORE, T. D. Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. S. 10.
    19. HEUER, J. R. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Center for Study of Intelligence, CIA, 1999, Part 1. Dostupný z www.
    20. GABBARD, C. B., TREVERTON, F. G. Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2008. Dostupný z www.
    21. JOHNSTON, R. Developing a Taxonomy of Intelligence Analysis Variables. Studies in Intelligence. 2003, vol. 43, no. 3. Dostupný z www.
    22. MARRIN, S. Improving CIA Analysis by Overcoming Institutional Obstacles. In SWENSON, G. R. (ed.). Bringing Intelligence About Practitioners Reflect on Best Practices. Washington DC: Joint Military Intelligence College Press, 2003, s. 41-60.
    23. SMITH, J. T. Predictive Network-Centric Intelligence Toward a Total-Systems Transformation of Analysis and Assessment. Galileo Essay Contest. Center for Naval Analyses, 2006.

    Return to the content