Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010: 16-23

Hrozba jaderných zbraníRecenzované

Mgr. Jan Ludvík

Následující článek si klade za cíl analyzovat současné hrozby ze strany jaderných zbraní. Ničivý potenciál jaderných zbraní přesahuje možnosti zbraní chemických a radiologických. Pro zachování analytické jednotnosti se autor ve svém článku omezuje pouze na roli jaderných zbraní. Rozsah problému by si samozřejmě zasloužil mnohem extenzivnější pojednání, než jaké zde mohu podat, proto se následující text zaměřuje především na nejdůležitější, nebo neprávem opomíjené argumenty.

Klíčová slova: Jaderná hrozba, globální bezpečnost, terorizmus, proliferace, USA, Rusko, Čína

The Current Reality of Nuclear Threat

This article addresses vital issues of possible threat of nuclear weapons in contemporary world. First, the general nuclear order-particularly the NPT regime-is briefly examined. Analysis proceeds to a critical exploration of the prospective use of nuclear weapons by small nuclear states and the so-called rogue states. Some attention is also paid to the conflict between India and Pakistan, since these two states are often considered as the most dangerous from perspective of possible use of nuclear weapons. The author considers the threat of nuclear war between great powers and then the threat of nuclear terrorism. His analysis suggests that deterrence between great powers is reliably working. The threat from rogue states is limited by technological difficulties in process of development and production of nuclear weapons and limits of small nuclear arsenals. Even though threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated, this paper argues that technical obstacles and availability of other comparatively cheap methods effectively reduce the terrorists' desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

Keywords: Nuclear threat, global security, terrorism, proliferation, USA, Russia, China

Zveřejněno: 15. září 2010  Zobrazit citaci

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Ludvík, J. (2010). Hrozba jaderných zbraní. Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review, 91(3), 16-23
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