Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010: 29-39

Predictive Methodology in Intelligence ServicesReviewed

Bc. Petr Zelinka

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

Keywords: Intelligence services, analysis, prediction, hypothesis

Published: March 15, 2010  Show citation

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Zelinka, P. (2010). Predictive Methodology in Intelligence Services. Czech Military Review, 91(1), 29-39
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