Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2025, Vol. XXXIV. (LXVI.): 55-69
Are There Real Global Catastrophic Biological Risks?Reviewed
- Faculty of Military Medicine, Hradec Králové; University of Defence, Brno, Czech Republic
Biosafety and biodefense (i.e. all countermeasures preventing the spread of biological agents in the environment and population) are on the regular agenda of states and their militaries. Somewhat aside are global catastrophic biological risks (GCBR), which can destroy human society as a biological species. Although a precise definition of what constitutes a global catastrophic biological risk is still being sought, it can be considered the impact of potential global catastrophic risks (GCR) on the social, economic and biological structure of human existence. This implies that GCBRs are a subset of GCRs. It is also open to discussion whether in the case of GCBRs the risk must necessarily be biological agents, from viruses to humans, or whether anthropogenic threats can also be accepted as risk factors, or what the impact must be for a risk to be included under the designation GCBR.
Keywords: Biological Agents; Biosecurity; Global Catastrophic Biological Risks; Population Collapse.
Published: January 1, 2026 Show citation
References
- Ahmad, Mohammad, Asad U. Khan. 2019. Global economic impact of antibiotic resistance: A review. J Glob Antimicrob Resist: 19:313-316. doi: 10.1016/j.jgar.2019.05.024.
Go to original source... - Arhenius, Svante. 1908. Worlds in the making. New York, London, Harper: Book digitized by Google from the library of the University of Michigan and uploaded to the internet Archive by user tpb., pp 252.
- Bakker, Robert T. 1986. The dynosaur heresies. Citadel Press: pp 481. ISBN 0-8217-5608-7.
- Barbeschi Maurizio. 2017. A Global Catastrophic Biological Risk Is Not Just About Biology. Health Secur: 15(4):349-350. doi: 10.1089/hs.2017.0058. Epub 2017 Jul 24. PMID: 28737948; PMCID: PMC5576194.
Go to original source... - Baum, Seth D. 2023. Assessing natural global catastrophic risks. Natural Hazards: 115 (3): 2699-2719. Bibcode:2023NatHa.115.2699B. doi:10.1007/ s11069-022-05660-w. PMC 9553633. PMID 36245947.
Go to original source... - Blong, Russell. 2021. Four global catastrophic risks - personal view. Frontiers in Earth Science: 1-17. doi: 10.3389/feart.2021.740695.
Go to original source... - Bond, David P.G., Wignall, Paul B. 2014. Volcanism, Impacts, and Mass Extinctions: Causes and Effects. (Online) Geological Society of America: ISBN 9780813725055. doi:10.1130/2014.2505(02).
Go to original source... - Bostrom, Nick, Milan Cirkovic. 2008. Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford: Oxford University Press: p. 1. ISBN 978-0-19-857050-9.
- Bostrom, Nick. 2009. Astronomical Waste: The opportunity cost of delayed technological development. Utilitas: 15 (3): 308-314. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.429.2849. doi:10.1017/ s095382080000407617.
Go to original source... - Bostrom, Nick. 2013. Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority. (PDF) Global Policy: 4 (1): 15-3. doi:10.1111/1758-5899.12002.
Go to original source... - Bradbury, Ray. 2001. 451 stupňů Fahrenheita. Baronet, Praha: 159.
- Brusatte, Stephen, L., Richard J. Butler, Paul M. Barrett, et al. 2015. The extinction of the dinosaurs. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc: 90(2):628-42. doi: 10.1111/brv.12128. Epub 2014 Jul 28. PMID: 25065505.
Go to original source... - Caplan Bryan. 2008. The totalitarian threat. Global Catastrophic Risks. Eds. Bostrom & Cirkovic (Oxford University Press): 504-519. ISBN 9780198570509.
- Cdc.gov. 2024. Smallpox vaccine. https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccines/index.html.
- Clark Simon. 2008. Noc trifidů. Polaris, Frenštát pod Radhoštěm:344.
- Cohn, Samuel K. Jr. 2008. Epidemiology of the Black Death and successive waves of plague. Med Hist Suppl: (27):74-100. PMID: 18575083; PMCID: PMC2630035.
- Cotton-Barratt, Owen, Toby Ord. 2015. Existential risk and existential hope: Definitions. (PDF) Future of Humanity Institute - Technical Report: 1, pp. 1-4.
- Čapek, Karel. 2023. Válka s mloky. Akcent, Třebíč:296.
- Čech, František Ringo. 2015. Generace Beatles aneb cestou do krematoria. Ikar, Praha: 315; ISBN 978-80-249-2910-1.
- Darwin, Charles. 1859. The Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection. J. Murray, Albemarle street, London.
- Diaz-Flores Ernesto, Tim Meyer, Alexis Giorkallos. 2021. Evolution of Artificial Intelligence-Powered Technologies in Biomedical Research and Healthcare. Adv Biochem Eng Biotechnol: 182:23-60. doi: 10.1007/10_2021_189.
Go to original source... - Dirzo Rodolfo, Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich. 2022. Circling the drain: the extinction crisis and the future of humanity. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci: 377(1857):20210378. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0655.
Go to original source... - Drabon, Nadja, Andrew H. Knoll, Donald R. Lowe, et al. 2024. Effect of a giant meteorite impact on Paleoarchean surface environments and life. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S
- EU. 2025. Akt EU o umělé inteligenci: první nařízení o umělé inteligenci. https://www. europarl.europa.eu/topics/cs/article/20230601STO93804/akt-eu-o-umele-inteligenci-prvni-narizeni-o-ai-na-svete. Zveřejněno: 14-06-2023, poslední aktualizace: 20-02-2025 - 14:20.
- Glansdorff, Nicolas. 2000. About the last common ancestor, the universal life-tree and lateral gene transfer: a reappraisal. Mol Microbiol: 38(2):177-85. doi: 10.1046/j.13652958.2000. 02126. x. PMID: 11069646.
Go to original source... - Golding, William, 2010. Pán much. Naše vojsko, Praha:256.
- Holzinger, Andreas, Katharina Keiblinger, Petr Holub, et al. 2023. AI for life: Trends in artificial intelligence for biotechnology. N Biotechnol: 74:16-24. doi: 10.1016/j.nbt.2023.02.001.
Go to original source... - Jablonski David. 2001. Lessons from the past: evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A: 98(10):5393-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.101092598.
Go to original source... - Kambouris Manousos E. 2023. Global Catastrophic Biological Risks in the Post-COVID-19 World: Time to Act Is Now. OMICS: 27(4):153-170. doi: 10.1089/omi.2022.0178.
Go to original source... - Lawton, John H., Robert M. May. 1995. Extinction Rates. (s.l.): Oxford University Press: 246 s. https://www. urn: lcp: extinctionrates00lawt:epub:db1807aa-a073-45b8-8923-1 7819518fae0.
- Lewis Gregory. 2020. Reducing global catastrophic biological risks, 80.000 hours. Published online at https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/preventing-catastrophic-pandemics/ full-report/.
- MacDougall Mark J., Neil Brocklehurst, Jörg Fröbisch. 2019. Species richness and disparity of parareptiles across the end-Permian mass extinction. Proc Biol Sci: 286(1899):20182572. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2018.2572.
Go to original source... - Mani Lara, Asaf Tzachor, Paul Cole. 2021. Global catastrophic risk from lower magnitude volcanic eruptions. Nat Commun: 12(1):4756. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25021-8. PMID: 34362902; PMCID: PMC8346556.
Go to original source... - Mann Uday, Benjamin Shiff , Premal Patel. 2020. Reasons for worldwide decline in male fertility. Curr Opin Urol: 30(3):296-301. doi: 10.1097/MOU.0000000000000745. PMID: 32168194.
Go to original source... - Mathieu, Edouard, Ritchie Hannah, Lucas Rodés-Guirao, et al., 2020. Mortality Risk of COVID-19. Published online at OurWorldinData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid (Online Resource).
- Mejsnar Jiří A. 2013. Mýtus evoluce. Galén, Praha: pp. 120. ISBN: 978-80-7262-973-2.
- Melott, Adrian L., Richard K. Bambach. 2012. Analysis of periodicity of extinction using the 2012 geological timescale. Paleobiology: 40/ 02: 177-196. doi: 10.1666/13047.
Go to original source... - Meyer, Hermann, Rosina Ehmann, Geoffrey L. Smith. 2020. Smallpox in the Post-Eradication Era. Viruses: 12(2):138. doi: 10.3390/v12020138. PMID: 31991671; PMCID: PMC7077202.
Go to original source... - Moodie, Roy L. 1926. Studies in Paleopathology (Second Series, II): Excess Callus Following Fracture of the Fore Foot in a Cretaceous Dinosaur. Ann Med Hist: 8(1):73-77. PMID: 33944479.
- Msemburi, William, Ariel Karlinsky, Victoria Knutson, et al. 2023. The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature: 613, 130-137. https:// doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05522-2.
Go to original source... - Newman M. E. J. 1997. A Model of Mass Extinction. Journal of Theoretical Biology: vol. 189, no. 3, pp. 235-252.
- Ord Toby. 2020. The precipice: Existential risk and the future of humanity. New York: Hachette Books: ISBN 0316484911, 9780316484916.
- Orwell George. 2014. Devatenáct set osmdesát čtyři. Argo, Praha:315.
- Papale Paolo, Warner Marzocchi. 2019. Volcanic threats to global society. Science: 363(6433):1275-1276. doi: 10.1126/science. aaw7201. PMID: 30898915.
Go to original source... - Patočka, Jan. 1992. Přirozený svět jako filozofický problem. 1. vyd. Praha: Československý spisovatel: s. 142; ISBN: 80-202-0365-6.
- Pfenning, Andreas R. 2024. AI-designed DNA sequences regulate cell-type-specific gene expression. Nature: 634(8036):1059-1061. doi: 10.1038/d41586-024-03170-2. PMID: 39443764.
Go to original source... - Posner, Richard A. 2006. Catastrophe: Risk and Response. Oxford: Oxford University Press: ISBN 978-0195306477, in Introduction, "What is Catastrophe?".
- Prafulla, C. Tiwari, Rishi Pal, Manju J. Chaudhary, Rajendra Nath. 2023. Artificial Intelligence revolutionizing drug development: Exploring opportunities and challenges. Drug Development Research: 84(8): 1652-1663. doi: 10.1002/ddr.22115
Go to original source... - Rampino, Michael, R., Ken Caldeira, Yuhong Zhu. 2021. A 27.5-My underlying periodicity detected in extinction episodes of non-marine tetrapods. Historical Biology: 33/11: 3084-3090. doi: 10.1080/08912963.2020.1849178.
Go to original source... - Rampino, Michael R. 2002. Supereruptions as a threat to civilizations on earth-like planets. Icarus: 156, 562-569. https://doi.org/10.1006/icar.2001.6808.
Go to original source... - Raoult, Didier, Nadjet Mouffok, Idir Bitam, et al. 2013. Plague: history and contemporary analysis. J Infect: 66(1):18-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2012.09.010. Epub 2012 Oct 3. PMID: 23041039.
Go to original source... - Raup, David M., Sepkoski, Josef J. Jr. 1984. "Periodicity of extinctions in the geologic past". Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A: 81(3):801-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.81.3.801. PMID: 6583680; PMCID: PMC344925.
Go to original source... - Rosa, Tomáš. 2024. Obří asteroid kdysi při dopadu na Zemi roztrhl mořské dno. Pomohl vzniku života. deník.cz: https://www.denik.cz/vesmir/asteroid-s2-zeme-zivot-harvard. html. 23. 10. 2024.
- Scouras, James. 2019. Nuclear War as a Global Catastrophic Risk. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis: 10 (2): 274-295. doi:10.1017/bca.2019.16.
Go to original source... - Schoene, Blair, Kile M. Samperton, Michael P. Eddy, et al. 2015. Earth history. U-Pb geochronology of the Deccan Traps and relation to the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.
- Science: 347(6218):182-4. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa0118. Epub 2014 Dec 11. PMID: 25502315.
Go to original source... - Schoch-Spana Monica, Anita Cicero, Amesh Adalja, et al. 2017. Global Catastrophic Biological Risks: Toward a Working Definition. Health Secur: 15(4):323-328. doi: 10.1089/ hs.2017.0038. Epub 2017 Jul 26. PMID: 28745924; PMCID: PMC5576209.
Go to original source... - Spelda Petr, Stritecky Vit. 2021. "Human Induction in Machine Learning: A Survey of the Nexus". ACM Comput. Surv.: 54(3): 1-18. doi: 10.1145/3444691.
Go to original source... - Spelda Petr, Stritecky Vit. 2025. "Security practices in AI development". AI & Soc. doi: 10.1007/s00146-025-02247-4.
Go to original source... - Spyrou, Maria A., Lyazzat Musralina, Guido A. Gnecchi Ruscone, et al. 2022. The source of the Black Death in fourteenth-century central Eurasia. Nature: 606(7915):718724. doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-04800-3. Epub 2022 Jun 15. PMID: 35705810; PMCID: PMC9217749.
Go to original source... - Tiwari, Prafulla, C., Rishi Pal, Manju J. Chaudhary, Rajendra Nath, 2023. Artificial intelligence revolutionizing drug development: Exploring opportunities and challenges. Drug Dev Res: 4(8):1652-1663. doi: 10.1002/ddr.22115.
Go to original source... - Todd Benjamin, 2022. The for reducing existential risks. https://80000hours.org/articles/ existential-risks/. First published October 2017.
- Topinka, Joseph B., Daniel P. Molnar, Brandon I. Gardner, et al. 2015. The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History. J Leg Med: 36(3-4):459-465. doi: 10.1080/01947648.2015.1262197. PMID: 28256945.
Go to original source... - Topol, Eric J. 2019. High-performance medicine: the convergence of human and artificial intelligence. Nat Med: 25(1):44-56. doi: 10.1038/s41591-018-0300-7.
Go to original source... - Tureček, Tomáš, Miroslav Bárta. 2013. Kolaps neznamená konec. Vyšehrad, Praha: ISBN 978-80-7429-392-4.
- Velázquez, Lourdes G. 2021. New Challenges for Ethics: The Social Impact of Posthumanism, Robots, and Artificial Intelligence. J Healthc Eng: 2021:5593467. doi: 10.1155/2021/5593467.
Go to original source... - Wikipedia. 2021. Abiotický faktor. https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiotick%C3%BD _faktor
- Worldometers. 2024. Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ world-population-by-year/.
- Yirka, Bob. 2023. Population ecologist warns that humanity is on the verge of massive population correction. https://phys.org/news/2023-08-population-ecologist-humanity-verge-massive.html.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


