Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2023: 35-49

Analysis of Taiwan Guerilla Potential - A Real Possibility or a Naive Notion?Reviewed - Review

Richard Oubělický

Existing research about China and Taiwan deals primarily with bilateral relations, military doctrines, etc. They don't pay much attention to the consequences of the potential China-Taiwan war. The article examines conditions for emerging and activity of guerillas with paramilitant signs in the case of China's domination over Taiwan. The analysis is based on the present general, socio-economic, political, geographical, and technological environment. A substantial part of the analysis is also argumentation about the potential of urban guerilla. The article is based on data, pieces of information, polls and academic and analytical texts relevant to the main research questions. Those questions are the potential for emerging, sustainability, and effectiveness of guerilla. The article comes with findings, that argue the relatively high potential for the emergence of guerilla primarily because of the suitable environment in Taiwan and possible effectiveness and sustainability based on existing variables, which can however also limit this potential.

Keywords: Analysis; China; Guerilla; Paramilitary Strategy; Taiwan.

Published: March 15, 2023  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Oubělický, R. (2023). Analysis of Taiwan Guerilla Potential - A Real Possibility or a Naive Notion? Czech Military Review, 104(1), 35-49
Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. TIAN, Yew Lun. China pledges peaceful growth of Taiwan ties, but opposes foreign interference. Reuters [online]. 5. 3. 2022 [cit. 2022-5-19]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/SrRTS
    2. ILHAN, Bekir. China's Evolving Military Doctrine After the Cold War'. SETA Analysis. [online]. 2020, 59: 16-17. [cit. 2022-5-19]. ISBN 978-625-7040-19-8, str. 17. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/JrRT9
    3. REHMAN, Iskander, THOMAS, Jim a John STILLION. Hard ROC 2.0: Taiwan and Deterrence through Protraction. [online] Washington: CSBA office, 21. 12. 2014. str. 1. [cit. 2022-5-20]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/LrRjf
    4. CIA. Cia.gov: Military service age and obligation. [online]. [cit. 2022-5-21]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/arRjI
    5. CHUN-MEY, Hwang a Jojo MAN. Taiwan mulls longer compulsory military service amid growing military tensions. RFA [online]. 3. 1. 2022 [cit. 2022-5-22]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/FrRj0
    6. DAVIDSON, Helen. Second line of defence: Taiwan's civilans train ro resist invasion. The Guardian [online]. 22. 9. 2021 [cit. 2022-5-22]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/GrRTY
    7. MAXOVÁ, Barbora. Reportáž - Hongkong a čínské mocenské ambice. V: Horizont 24. ČT24 [online], 1. 7. 2022, 0:46. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/KrRjX
    8. MAREŠ, Miroslav. Vymezení pojmů terorismus, válka a guerilla v soudobé bezpečnostní terminologii. Obrana a strategie. [online]. Brno: Obrana a strategie, 2004, 1/2004, [cit. 2022-6-X]. ISSN 1802-7199. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/BrRjO
    9. SCHMITT, Carl. The Theory of the Partisan: A Commentary/Remark on the Concept of the Political. [online]. Lansing: Michigan State University Press, 2004, [cit. 2022-5-20]. str. 10. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/ZrRj9
    10. NCHU-ESC. esc.nccu.edu.tw: Taiwan Independence vs. Unification with the Mainland(1994/12~2021/12). [online]. [cit. 2022-5-22]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/9rRjP
    11. PROCHÁZKOVÁ Kateřina. Interview - Hongkong a čínské mocenské ambice. V: Horizont 24. ČT24 [online], 1. 7. 2022, 6:12. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/zrRj6
    12. DEVLIN, Kat a Christine HUANG. In Taiwan, Views of Mainland China Mostly Negative. Washington: Pew Research Center, 12. 5. 2020. [cit. 2022-5-22]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/8rRj8
    13. VALENTINO, Benjamin a Paul HUTH. Draining the Sea': Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare. International Organization. [online]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004, 58.2: 375-407 [cit. 2022-5-2]. ISSN 1531-5088. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/urRjx
    14. EIU. Democracy Index 2021: the China challenge. London: Economist Intelligence Unit Headquaters, 2021. [cit. 2022-5-17]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/SrRjA
    15. LOCKYER, Adam. Foreign intervention and warfare in civil wars. Review of International Studies. [online]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 37.5: 2337-2364 [cit. 2022-6-13]. ISSN 1469-9044. str. 2340. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/lrRjm
    16. THE WHITE HOUSE. INDOPACIFICSTRATEGY OF THE UNITED STATES. [online]. Washington: Únor 2022. [cit. 2022-6-15]. Str. 4.Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/8KcLK
    17. BRUNNSTROM, David a Michael MARTINA. Analysis: Biden's Taiwan remarks show conviction to defend island but carry risks By Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom. Reuters [online]. 24. 5. 2022 [cit. 2022-7-2]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/YrRjy 26 US Trade Representative. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. [online]. Washington: Květen 2022. [cit. 2022-10-13]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/6rRdM 27 Office of the THE WHITE HOUSE. NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY. [online]. Washington: Říjen 2022. [cit. 2022-10-13]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/YrRdz
    18. SACKS, David. The United States and Japan Should Prepare for Chinese Aggression Against Taiwan. The Council on Foreign Relations [online]. 18. 1. 2022 [cit. 2022-6-14]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/krRj7
    19. MACLEAN, Fitzroy. The Setting for Guerrilla Warfare. Royal United Services Institution. Journal. [online]. London: RUSI, 2009, 156.1, 90-96, [cit. 2022-6-15]. ISSN 0035-9289, str. 92. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/ZrRdK
    20. WWF. Worldwildlife.org: Southeastern Asia: Taiwan. [online]. [cit. 2022-6-15]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/brRdr
    21. BRITANNICA. Britannica.com: Taiwan. [online]. [cit. 2022-6-15]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/6rRd1
    22. C-2, nebo také C&C komplexy vychází z pojmu "Command and Control". Jedná se o vojenské infrastrukturní komplexy sloužící ke zvýšení interoperability skrze řízení a komunikaci v reálném čase
    23. WPR. Worldpopulationreview.com: Largest Countries in the World 2022. [online]. [cit. 2022-6-15]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/CrRdJ
    24. WORLDOMETERS. Worldometers.info: Taiwan Population. [online]. [cit. 2022-6-15]. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/nrRde
    25. MARIGHELLA, Carlos a Robert MOSS. Urban guerrilla warfare: with an appendix: Minimanual of the urban guerrilla. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1971. [cit. 2022-7-1]. str. 20. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/JrRdQ
    26. JENKINS, Brian Michael. The Five Stages of Urban Guerrilla Warfare: Challenge for the 1970s. [online]. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation Office, 1971. [cit. 2022-6-17]. str. 6. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/yrRdi
    27. HUNZEKER, Michael A. Taiwan's defense plans are going off the rails. Warontherocks.com. [online]. Austin: The University of Texas, 18.11.2021 [cit. 2022-6-20]. ISSN 2576-1153. Dostupné z: https://1url.cz/6rRdo

    Return to the content