Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2013: 65-75

Competing Hypotheses Analysis: Practical ApplicationsReviewed - Review

Ing. Pavel Zůna, MSS., Ph.D.

In 2007 and 2010, this Czech Military Review Vojenské rozhledy published several articles, discussing analytical thinking and analytical methodologies in the field of military intelligence. The authors among others mentioned the methodology ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. The methodology is not suitable only for intelligence, but it can be used further for solving a variety of military decision-making problems. The article in its first part describes ACH philosophy, including some academic considerations both by supporters and critics to this methodology. The second part demonstrates an example of its implementation and usage during support other problems tied with decision-making in defence planning process. The method is simple to explain, but difficult to introduce to real practice. The article explains both the theory and modifications of ACH and underlines some pitfalls connected with putting methodology into practice.

Keywords: Military intelligence, analysis of competing hypotheses, ACH, defence planning, decision-making, evidence, type, credibility, relevance, probability, consistency of facts with hypothesis, data collection, HUMINT, OSINT, SIGINT.

Published: March 15, 2013  Show citation

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Zůna, P., & MSS., (2013). Competing Hypotheses Analysis: Practical Applications. Czech Military Review, 94(1), 65-75
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