Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2020: 57-71

Je Turecko připraveno na válku se Sýrií?Recenzované - Přehledový

Vladimír Bízik, Zdeněk Kříž

Tento článek odpovídá na otázku, zda je Turecko připraveno vstoupit do otevřeného vojenského konfliktu se Sýrií Bašára al-Asada. Text vychází z adaptace Clausewitzova předpokladu, že pro vítězné vedení války musí stát disponovat třemi zdroji: vlastními bojovými silami, podporou obyvatelstva a podporou spojenců. Turecko vykazuje slabiny ve vojenské doméně, zejména v oblasti letectva a protivzdušné obrany a není jisté, že by bylo schopné ovládnout vzdušný prostor v konfliktní oblasti. Turecké obyvatelstvo si vleklý zahraniční konflikt dlouhodobě nepřeje. Země je navzdory mnoha neshodám pevně zakotvena v NATO a její strategické zájmy se neliší od zájmů svých strategických spojenců. Turecko si rovněž nemůže dovolit dostat se do přímého konfliktu s Ruskem. Text uzavírá, že Turecko si vstup do otevřeného ozbrojeného konfliktu nemůže dovolit politicky ani vojensky.

Klíčová slova: Sýrie; Rusko; Erdoğan; Putin; Asad; Clausewitz; letectvo; podpora obyvatelstva.

Is Turkey Ready for a War with Syria?

This article examines whether Turkey is ready for a full-scale military conflict with Bashar Al-Assad's Syria. It draws from an adaptation of Clausewitz's concept of three resources that a state must possess to be able to win a war: the fighting forces proper, popular support, and its allies. Turkey is at a significant disadvantage when it comes to its air force and air defense capabilities. Should a major confrontation erupt, Turkey would not be guaranteed to be able to control the relevant air space. Turkish citizens do not favor seeing their country in a foreign quagmire. Despite myriad differences, Turkey it is still deeply embedded within NATO, and its strategic interests do not differ from those of its strategic allies. Turkey also cannot afford to risk an open military conflict with Russia. The article concludes that Turkey is politically and militarily not capable of fighting a full-scale war in Syria.

Keywords: Syria; Russia; Erdoğan; Putin; Assad; Clausewitz; Air Force, Public Support.

Zveřejněno: 15. září 2020  Zobrazit citaci

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Bízik, V., & Kříž, Z. (2020). Je Turecko připraveno na válku se Sýrií? Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review, 101(3), 57-71
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